The oil market is trading on rumour. Trillion-dollar AI companies are going public with no profit. Gold has fallen 20% from its peak. And somewhere in the middle of all this chaos, your money is making decisions by the hour.
Peter McGuire, CEO of Australia-Trading.com, sat down with ET Now to decode what is arguably the most unpredictable market environment in recent memory, and his answers were blunt.
OpenAI IPO: ChatGPT maker files for US Stock Market initial public offering after Anthropic, SpaceX
Crude is volatile, but likely heading higher
Brent crude came within touching distance of $100 a barrel before pulling back. McGuire says the retreat means little. "Nothing surprises me at all," he said. "You can see 5% and 6% moves in a day. It is not uncommon," says McGuire.
Why are oil prices up today, and will Brent and US WTI crude futures continue to rise or fall again? Oil edges higher as investors watch Iran-Israel developments
The volatility is being driven by a confluence of factors — the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, tentative moves from Yemen, and depleting global stockpiles.
Crucially, McGuire points out that the market is currently "leading on noise" rather than fundamentals, meaning every geopolitical headline moves the price, regardless of the underlying supply-
demand picture.
His directional call: crude edges higher from here. For Indian households already paying ₹7.5 more per litre, that is not welcome news.
$3-trillion IPOs are about to fight for your capital
OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX are all heading toward public markets, each valued close to or above $1 trillion. McGuire describes this as an unprecedented fight for global capital.
"There is only so much capital that can be deployed," he said. "You have got to possibly look at selling down other stocks," he says.
For investors in India, Southeast Asia, and Australia, the implication is direct: liquidity will get pulled toward US markets. Emerging market equities, including Indian mid-caps, could face near-term pressure as global funds rotate to capture the AI listing frenzy.
But McGuire also raised a sharp question that every retail investor should be asking: OpenAI loses $1.22 for every dollar it earns. "If you told me that in a business school," he said, "I would say this does not sound like a great business model." The AI trade, he implies, is fully priced, and a day of reckoning is coming at some point.
India: Slow to attract flows right now, But the story is intact
India will not be the immediate beneficiary of the current capital rotation, McGuire concedes. The Middle East situation and energy price pressure need to stabilise first.
But his long-term conviction is unambiguous. "India's day in the sun — it is really your century in the sun," he said. Young population, entrepreneurial energy, and a market that "ticks all the boxes" make it one of his highest-conviction long-term bets. He plans to visit India within months.
Gold is down 20%. McGuire says buy the dip
Gold has lost momentum as smart money chased energy and equities. But McGuire sees the pullback as an accumulation opportunity, not a structural breakdown.
"The hot air has been drained out of it," he said, adding that gold and silver are set for another run by Q4. With a US 10-year yield at 4.57%, bonds are competing for safe-haven flows — but that competition will not last forever.
The bottom line: Markets are being driven by geopolitics, not fundamentals. For investors, McGuire's playbook is clear — watch crude closely, be cautious chasing AI IPOs at trillion-dollar valuations, stay long on India for the decade, and start accumulating gold before Q4
