Indian retail investors are estimated to have poured Rs 17,539 crore into 8 core Nifty bluechip stocks in the January–March 2026 quarter, making a sweeping contrarian bet on market heavyweights even as a sharp correction wiped billions from retail portfolio values. The stocks they bought most aggressively were, almost uniformly, the ones that had fallen the most.

HDFC Bank is estimated to have drawn the largest retail inflow of Rs 5,331 crore even as its stock fell 26.20% during the quarter, according to data from primeinfobase.com. ITC attracted Rs 3,634 crore in fresh retail money despite shedding 29%. Wipro, down 28.73%, saw retail investors add Rs 1,024 crore. Retail buyers also piled into Larsen & Toubro (Rs 2,364 crore, -14%), Reliance Industries (Rs 1,767 crore, -14%), Infosys (Rs 1,224 crore, -23%), TCS (Rs 1,213 crore, -26%), and Mahindra & Mahindra (Rs 982 crore, -20%). The data indicates a clear pattern of retail buying interest being tied to the depth of the fall.

Is Nifty cheap to buy?

Emkay Global's Seshadri Sen urges caution on the valuation narrative. While the Nifty optically trades below one standard deviation of its historical price-to-earnings multiple on headline Bloomberg figures, Sen estimates the index is actually trading at 19.3x FY27 earnings, broadly in line with the long-term average of 19.5x, once a 4-5% downside risk to Bloomberg's FY27 EPS estimates is factored in.

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Market data shows 39% of the consensus universe is trading at a PE more than one standard deviation above its five-year historical average, a reading that has ranged between 28% and 45% over the past six to seven quarters. "Market appears to be pricing in a post-war normalization in estimates and multiples," Sen said, adding that if hostilities continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains shut beyond the next four to six weeks, "both earnings and valuation assumptions could come under pressure."

J.P. Morgan's current sector positioning reflects a similarly selective read on where value actually lies. The bank is overweight Industrials — with names such as L&T, BEL, Adani Ports, NTPC, Power Grid, CG Power, GE Vernova T&D, Hitachi Energy, and Polycab — as well as Hospitals, Materials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary. It is underweight IT and Pharma, two sectors that feature prominently in the retail buying list, notably TCS, Infosys, and Wipro.

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Shrinking retail portfolios

The buying spree unfolded against a painful backdrop for retail investors overall. The total value of retail holdings in NSE-listed companies fell 15.15% in a single quarter from Rs 34,14,602 crore as of December 31, 2025 to Rs 28,97,298 crore as of March 31, 2026, according to the data. Retail's share by value in NSE-listed companies declined to 7.12% from 7.25% over the same period, while their free-float share slipped to 14.24% from 14.43%.

Yet even as portfolio values shrank, the number of companies in which retail investors held stakes rose from 2,225 to 2,246, suggesting that the correction prompted broader participation.

What retail investors sold

Retail investors were not indiscriminate buyers. Even as they loaded up on battered large-caps, they were simultaneously trimming exposure elsewhere, often in stocks that had held up relatively better or where the near-term thesis had soured.

State Bank of India saw the heaviest retail selling, with Rs 2,277 crore in net outflows despite the stock falling only 0.29%, suggesting fatigue rather than panic. BSE, which was actually up 1.95% on the quarter, saw Rs 2,273 crore in net retail selling. IRB Infrastructure saw a dramatic reduction in retail shareholding worth Rs 1,815 crore, even as the stock gained 5.33%. Coal India, up 12.89% on the quarter, saw Rs 1,132 crore in retail exits, a classic case of profit-booking into strength. Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Bharat Electronics, Tata Power, and Adani Power also featured among the top sells.