How OpenAI’s ranking tumbled in Betting Markets after GPT-5 launch

Prediction markets have dramatically shifted, favoring Google over OpenAI in the AI race. Following GPT-5’s underwhelming demo, Google’s probability of having the best AI model surged to 77% on Polymarket. Traders are betting on Google’s Gemini 3.0 and its broader AI ecosystem to surpass OpenAI, reflecting a belief in Google’s strategic advantage and potential for superior models.