Mumbai: The country could log 8% growth if global conditions improve and external shocks ease over the next year, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Poonam Gupta said on Tuesday at a media event in the city.
Gupta said that India's growth momentum has remained resilient despite multiple headwinds, including elevated oil prices, deficient rainfall and El Nino.
"If these multiple external shocks had not happened in the last three years, my sense is we would have been at our inflection point already," she said. "Suppose the global environment becomes better, if not right away, then in the next one year, another 50 basis points to one percentage point growth will come just from there," Gupta said.
India's GDP accelerated 7.1% in the first quarter of this fiscal year, while the RBI upgraded its GDP forecast of Q2FY27 to 7.2% in October, from 6.4% in August. The full year FY27 GDP projections stand at 7.1%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India's economy to grow 7% in both 2026 and 2027, the fastest among 21 economies with GDP exceeding $1 trillion in 2025.
Gupta said the country's growth momentum has continued to grow into the second quarter, supported by indicators including tax collections, bank credit, merchandise exports, purchasing managers' indices and infrastructure activity. The Q2 GDP numbers would be released on November 30.
On inflation, Gupta further said that in India it is expected to rise as the impact of external supply shocks feeds through the economy. The International Monetary Fund projects Indian inflation to increase to 5% in 2026 from 2% last year, while the RBI's projection is slightly higher at 6% in Q3, before it moderates next year.
On the global economy, Gupta said growth had proved more resilient than expected despite geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions. The IMF has slightly upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026, with much of the improvement coming from advanced economies benefiting from AI related investment.
