The Nifty closed out June's expiry holding above the psychologically important 24,000 mark, and market strategist Rohit Srivastava, founder of Strike Money Analytics and Indiacharts, believes the index is entering a seasonally favorable stretch that could carry it much higher through the summer.
Srivastava points to a historical pattern where equities tend to perform well from June through August, with any meaningful correction typically arriving only after that window closes. For now, he's tracking two crucial markers: 23,860 as the downside support level, which he expects to hold as it has on previous tests, and 24,310 as the breakout trigger on the upside. A decisive move above that resistance, he says, could open a clear path toward 25,000.
Banking, defence could lead next market rally as Nifty eyes 25,000: Rohit Srivastava
Banking set to lead, Bank Nifty eyes 61,000
Interest-rate-sensitive sectors are where Srivastava is placing his conviction. Banking tops the list, with a projected move toward the 61,000 level on the Bank Nifty, positioning it as one of the strongest-performing sectors of the year.
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Realty and auto are close behind. Real estate stocks have already shown resilience, holding firm even during last week's broader market weakness — a sign Srivastava reads as underlying strength. Auto stocks, after a period of flatness, have begun to stir, with Maruti breaking out and Ashok Leyland showing similar early momentum.
Metals under pressure, but long-term story intact
Metal stocks are showing near-term weakness, largely a byproduct of a strengthening dollar, according to Srivastava. Even so, he maintains a positive longer-term outlook for the sector and is watching for signs of a bottom forming.
Pharma's breakout signals a bigger move
Despite short-term selling pressure, which Srivastava attributes to rotation out of defensives and into largecaps and midcap growth names as the broader market rallies, the Nifty Pharma Index has cleared a long-term breakout level above 23,600. On a one-year view, he sees scope for the index to climb toward the 30,000–33,000 zone, framing any near-term dip as a pause rather than a trend change.
IT remains a sector to avoid
The outlook is far less rosy for technology stocks. Srivastava is steering clear of the IT space altogether, noting continued weakness not just in domestic IT names but across the Global Software Index as well. While a short-lived bounce is possible if the broader market keeps climbing, he sees no evidence yet of a genuine bottom forming, and views the risk as skewed to the downside.
FMCG: A tactical trade, not a long-term bet
Fast-moving consumer goods stocks have faced pressure recently, partly tied to a delayed monsoon weighing on fundamentals. Still, Srivastava sees a short-term opportunity. The Nifty FMCG Index bottomed near 47,500 and has since recovered to around 49,000, with individual names like Dabur showing fresh strength. On a one-month horizon, he expects the index could push toward 50,000–55,000, making it a candidate for tactical long trades even though the sector isn't expected to lead in a growth-driven market.
Bottom line: With seasonal tailwinds in play, Srivastava's playbook favors rate-sensitive plays — banking, realty and auto — alongside a long-term bullish stance on pharma, while flagging IT as the sector to sidestep for now.
