The Indian stock market rallied sharply on Friday, with the Sensex and Nifty gaining over 1% each, as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal, easing crude oil prices, and improving global sentiment lifted investor confidence.

Sensex surged over 1,000 points to the day's high of 74,856, while Nifty 50 rose over 250 points to trade above the 23,400 level. The rally added more than Rs 6 lakh crore to the combined market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies, taking the total market value to around Rs 459 lakh crore.

All 30 Sensex constituents traded in the green, led by Tata Steel, IndiGo, L&T, Eternal, SBI and Tech Mahindra, which gained up to 3%. The rally was broad-based, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices advancing nearly 2% each.

Sectoral indices also posted strong gains across the board, with Nifty Auto and Nifty Realty rising around 2%. Meanwhile, India VIX, the market's fear gauge, fell 6% to 14.75, reflecting easing volatility. Market breadth remained firmly positive, with 2,264 stocks advancing on the NSE, compared with 172 declines, while 74 stocks were unchanged.

Here are the key factors boosting markets today:

1) Trump says US-Iran peace deal may be signed this weekend

US President Donald Trump on Thursday said that the US and Iran could sign a peace deal as soon as this weekend, which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for shipping. Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said, "We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran."

"The strait will officially open as soon as we sign, which could be soon, very soon, maybe over the weekend in Europe,” he further said, adding that Vice President JD Vance could sign on behalf of the United States. When asked if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has approved the deal, Trump said, "I understand the answer is yes."

Iran has countered the claim, saying it had not reached a final decision on an agreement. Iranian media reported Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei as saying that large parts of the negotiating text have been finalized but Iran would not compromise on its red lines.

Oil prices plunged below $90 per barrel as a result of the rising hopes for a sooner conclusion to the Iran-US peace deal and subsequent opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow 33-kilometre waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman that handles over 20% of the world’s daily oil and gas shipments.

Brent crude futures were trading near $89 per barrel while WTI Crude futures were below $87 per barrel. Notably, this comes after a skyrocketing rally had pushed oil prices as high as above $120 per barrel earlier this year following the closure of the Strait, rattling global markets.

Dalal Street accompanies its global peers in gains amid optimism around falling oil prices and the sooner conclusion of the peace deal. Japan’s Nikkei surged 3% while South Korea’s Kospi rallied over 8%. Hong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite jumped around 2% each, while Taiwan Weighted surged 2.5%.

Wall Street also closed sharply higher yesterday, with tech-heavy Nasdaq jumping around 3% and S&P 500 gaining nearly 2%. European markets also closed in the green yesterday, with comparatively lower gains.

Indian rupee gained 60 paise to 95.25 against the US dollar in early trade. “Going ahead, crude oil movement will remain the key driver for the currency, along with capital flows and global risk sentiment. The near-term rupee range is seen between 95.25–95.95,” Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst of Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities.

What lies ahead?

While near-term sentiment has turned positive, investors should remain watchful of developments on the geopolitical front, as any setback in negotiations or a renewed spike in crude prices could reintroduce volatility and cap the market's upside, said Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research at Axis Direct.

“Technically, the Nifty's undertone has improved and the index is expected to remain constructive as long as it sustains above the 23,300–23,350 zone. A decisive move above 23,500 could accelerate momentum towards 23,700 and higher levels. On the downside, 23,100 remains an important support, while a breach below this level could invite fresh selling pressure towards the 22,900 zone,” he added.

Today’s sharp rise comes after Sensex and Nifty saw muted gains and losses for a couple of sessions, despite sharp upswings and downswings. SBI Securities had said that a decisive breach by Nifty below the 23,000 mark could intensify selling pressure, potentially dragging the index towards 22,850, followed by 22,700 levels in the short term. On the upside, the immediate resistance was placed in the 23,300–23,330 zone, which is likely to act as a near-term hurdle for any recovery, although the index has now comfortably breached that level.