Will Nifty hit 25,000 this month? Key levels to watch in the week ahead

Nifty eyes a potential up move following a supportive hammer candle formation, though a dash to 25,000 looks uncertain. While short-term oscillators lean lower, Geojit Investment’s chief market strategist Anand James highlights key immediate targets at 24,300–24,600, advising caution with a strict downside support watch at 23,800.

Edited excerpts from a chat:

After two consecutive and steady weekly gains, what are the targets that you would have for the week ahead for Nifty? Can we expect 25,000 by the end of this month?

Oscillators are all seen turning lower, but that is not surprising given the downsided gapped opening that followed a 50day spree of higher close. There are no clear signals towards a dash to 25,000, but we remain optimistic about an up move, given a hammer candle formation on Friday. We will go in next week with hopes of 24300-600, but also with eyes on 23800 on the side of caution.

The crash in IT stocks on Friday has now left the Nifty IT index to 3-year lows while heavyweight stocks are at 5-year lows. What are the charts indicating for Monday's session?

The Nifty IT index remains technically weak despite Friday’s intraday recovery, and the charts suggest caution for Monday’s session.

On the monthly chart, the index is now hovering close to a crucial horizontal support zone near 26,500-27,000, which has historically acted as a demand base. However, the sustained decline and fresh 3-year lows indicate that selling pressure remains dominant.

Momentum indicators reinforce this weakness. The weekly RSI is hovering near the oversold region, reflecting stretched downside conditions but not yet a decisive reversal signal. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram, although still in negative territory, is showing signs of losing downside momentum, hinting at a possible near-term pause or mild pullback.

Friday’s price action marked by a gap-down opening followed by partial recovery in most index heavyweights, except Infosys, suggests short-covering rather than fresh buying interest. This keeps the broader trend fragile, keeping in mind the sharp correction on Friday, triggered by Accenture’s lower FY26 growth guidance, continues to weigh on sentiment and this could cap any immediate upside.

Outlook for Monday remains range-bound with a weak bias, as the index continues to hover near a critical support zone; a decisive break below this level could trigger further downside, while any bounce is likely to face resistance at recent breakdown levels.

The defence index, on the other hand, hit a fresh 52-week high on Friday amid sustained buying on positive news flow. How strong is the momentum?

The momentum in the defence index appears strong and improving, backed by both price structure and momentum indicators.

From a price-action perspective, the index has been trading within a narrowing wedge and has now pushed towards the upper boundary, suggesting volatility compression followed by directional expansion. This is reinforced by a multi-week range breakout on the upside, indicating fresh participation and a continuation of the broader uptrend.

On the momentum front, the weekly MACD has given a bullish signal crossover, which is significant given the higher timeframe. This typically reflects early-stage trend acceleration rather than exhaustion, especially after a consolidation phase. The MACD histogram also appears to be stabilizing after a mild contraction, hinting at renewed upward momentum.

Additionally, the index sustaining above key breakout zones around the recent range highs strengthens the case for trend persistence. The steady higher highs formation visible on the chart further confirms underlying demand.

Stocks such as Paras Defence, MTAR Technologies, Data Patterns, and Apollo have been gaining since the beginning of this month. In contrast, major players like BEL, BDL, Mazagon Dock, Cochin Shipyard, and GRSE have seen an uptick only since the beginning of this week and now appear to be attempting a reversal, which could gain traction in the coming weeks leading the index towards 9880-10000 region.

Transformers & Rectifiers (India) shares jumped 10% on Friday. More steam left?

Transformers & Rectifiers is poised for a large and sustained upmove, having completed an inverted Head and Shoulder pattern breakout. However, an evening star candlestick pattern formed in 2 hour charts on Friday points to a consolidation or slippage initially, which can be used for fresh entry into the anticipated upmove.

The New India Assurance Company stock ended the week 32% up. How would you trade now?

Despite the steep rise in the last two days, momentum appears to be in the stock’s favour as confirmed by volume participation as well as oscillators. We prefer to stay with the uptrend for now, with stop loss placed below 187.

Give us your top stock ideas for the week?

RADICO (LTPL 3769)

SL: 3480

Radico Khaitan is exhibiting a strong bullish continuation setup across higher timeframes. On the weekly chart, the stock has resumed its uptrend after a brief consolidation, forming a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, indicating sustained buying interest. The recent breakout above the 3,400–3,500 zone suggests a range expansion, supported by improving volume activity.

Momentum indicators remain constructive. The weekly RSI is trending above 70, reflecting strong momentum, while the MACD has witnessed a bullish crossover with rising histograms, signaling acceleration in upward momentum. On the monthly chart, the structure remains firmly positive, with the stock holding above key support levels and continuing its long-term uptrend.

Despite the strength, short-term overheating cannot be ruled out given the sharp rally; hence, minor pullbacks or consolidation near current levels may occur. However, any such dips are likely to be buying opportunities as long as the structure remains intact.

Traders can consider a positive bias with an upside target of 4,000-4,200, while maintaining a strict stop-loss at 3,480 on a closing basis.

REDINGTON (LTPL 280)

SL: 264

Redington is exhibiting early signs of a recovery after a prolonged consolidation phase, supported by improving price action and momentum indicators. The stock has rebounded sharply from the 200–210 demand zone, forming a strong bullish candle on the weekly chart, which indicates renewed buying interest.

Price is now attempting to reclaim the 275–285 resistance band, a key supply zone that has capped upside in recent months. A sustained move above this region could confirm a short-term reversal, paving the way for further upside. The overall structure suggests a potential transition from a downtrend to a range breakout attempt. It has comfortably closed above the weekly Supertrend level of 273 indicating bullishness.

On the momentum front, the RSI has turned upward from lower levels, indicating strengthening momentum, while the MACD has delivered a bullish crossover with expanding histogram bars, reinforcing the positive bias.

A positive bias can be maintained with an upside target of 315, while keeping a strict stop-loss at 264.