New record! China trade surplus hits $1.2 trillion – what’s the outlook for 2026?

China achieved a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, driven by robust exports to global markets that compensated for reduced shipments to the United States. Despite ongoing trade friction, experts predict exports will continue to be a significant growth driver for China’s economy in 2026, with the trade surplus expected to remain above $1 trillion.