Investors are betting alcohol companies are among the winners of last night’s midterm election landslide on views a new Congress will push back on the Trump administration’s immigration and trade policies that dented booze businesses.
Constellation Brands Inc., which sells Modelo and Corona beer brands in the US, rose as much as 7.4% Wednesday, the most since April. Other alcohol stocks including Boston Beer Co., Brown-Forman Corp. and Molson Coors Beverage Co. also jumped.
The potential for changes to immigration policing and tariffs on important alcohol markets including Canada are a rare bright spot for an industry that is struggling with lower consumption in the US.
Bank of America analyst Peter Galbo raised his recommendation for Constellation due to the improved immigration environment. “We now believe Democratic control of Congress reduces the risk of further tightening in the immigration backdrop,” an important headwind for the company’s beer business, he wrote in a note.
Hispanic consumers represent around 40% of the company’s US beer business and tighter immigration policies have reduced that population through border control and fewer social gatherings, Galbo wrote.
Earlier this year, Constellation told analysts that communities with higher Hispanic representation have remained challenging, though that pressure has eased more recently.
Shares of Brown-Forman rose on the notion that tensions between the US and Canada could subside. The maker of Jack Daniel’s whiskey and Woodford Reserve bourbon brands has been largely shut out from that critical market as provinces have locked out US labels in response to President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian products.
Though whisky sales in Canada are only a small fraction for Brown-Forman, a reversal in trade tensions would be quite beneficial for the company, according to TD Cowen analyst Seamus Cassidy. It “would be a pretty significant offset to some of the weakness” in sales for a business that’s in decline or growing, Cassidy said on Wednesday.
Spirits sales to Canada have fallen 70%, from $232 million to $72 million since 2025, when US products were largely removed from liquor store shelves, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, an industry trade group.
The Louisville-based firm’s export sales have become increasingly important as its US business has slowed. It generates around 3% of its sales in Canada, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Overall, the portion of Americans who say they drink has remained at historic lows, though the average number of beverages consumed inched higher this year, according to a recent Gallup poll. Spending on alcohol also hit record lows last year due to economic strain and growing demand for alternatives like THC infused drinks.
