The IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok will put global growth, debt sustainability and geopolitics in focus as high energy costs and rising borrowing costs weigh on markets. The IMF's updated World Economic Outlook on Tuesday will be closely watched after the Iran war prompted two cuts to its global growth forecast. Policymakers are also expected to discuss conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, AI regulation and debt risks. (Source: Reuters)
US inflation to test Fed rate expectations
US inflation data due Wednesday will offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's next policy move. September consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.6% month-on-month, while core CPI is expected to increase 0.2%, according to a Reuters poll. Producer prices and retail sales data due Thursday will add to the picture. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could revive bets on another Fed rate hike later this month.
Wall Street banks kick off earnings season
Major US banks will lead the third-quarter earnings season, with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo reporting on Tuesday, followed by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on Wednesday. Earnings are expected to rise by as much as 20% from a year earlier. Investors will assess whether elevated Treasury yields are hurting lending growth, dealmaking and funding costs, amid a sharp pullback in bank stocks.
China exports in focus amid weak domestic demand
China's September trade and inflation data will help investors assess whether strong overseas demand can offset sluggish domestic consumption. Exports are forecast to rise 25.3% year-on-year in dollar terms, following 25% growth in August, according to a Reuters poll. Imports are expected to grow 23.5%. Separate data will also be watched for signs that higher energy costs linked to the Iran war are pushing up producer and consumer prices.
Global bond selloff raises fresh concerns
Investors will watch whether demand for government bonds can withstand a continuing selloff that has pushed US and French yields to their highest levels in 24 years. The French-German 10-year yield spread has widened to around 136 basis points from below 100 basis points a month earlier, raising concerns about fiscal risks and financial market stability. The surge in borrowing costs is also weighing on the euro and European equities, with hedge funds facing scrutiny over their role in bond market volatility.
(Disclaimer: This slideshow is based on inputs from agencies. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
