Vinay Rajani of HDFC Securities sees Nifty extending its rally toward 24,400, with financials and rate-sensitive sectors taking market leadership.

The Nifty 50 has cleared a key technical resistance level, and one of Dalal Street's closely watched analysts says the breakout looks real, with financial stocks set to lead the next leg of the rally.

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Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities, told ET Now that 23,800, a level the index had repeatedly failed to close above, has now flipped to strong support, with the index holding above it through Monday's session on the back of positive global cues.

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"It is finally going to settle here and close strong today," Rajani said, pointing to the breakout as a meaningful shift in market structure.

Broader market the real story

While Nifty has been the headline, Rajani flagged that the more compelling signal is coming from beneath it. The Microcap 250 and Smallcap indices are resuming their positional uptrends, and the Nifty Midcap 100 is on the verge of registering a fresh all-time high.

"That is a very good sign of broader market participation," he said. "Nifty is actually underperforming the broader markets" — which, in technical analysis, is typically a healthy sign of widespread buying rather than a narrow, fragile rally.

Where to set your levels

For short-term and positional traders, Rajani laid out a clear framework on Nifty:

Support: 23,800 (immediate); 23,500 (stop loss for positional traders)

Resistance / Target: 24,400, where a downward-sloping trend line provides the first meaningful ceiling

Bias: Bullish in the short term; hold long positions unless 23,500 is breached on the downside

Financials take the lead

On sector rotation, Rajani said leadership has shifted decisively to financials and rate-sensitive sectors over the last two to three sessions — a trend he expects to continue given the current global macro backdrop.

"The kind of global developments going on right now are clearly positive for rate-sensitive sectors," he noted.

Two stock picks with defined risk

Rajani named two specific buy recommendations from the financial space, each with a one-week horizon and 3–4% upside potential:

Power Finance Corporation (PFC)

Buy around: ₹440

Stop loss: ₹433

Target: ₹452

Rationale: Healthy correction complete; resuming overall uptrend

L&T Finance (LTF)

Buy around: ₹279

Stop loss: ₹275

Target: ₹287

Rationale: Bouncing from long-term support after meaningful correction

The bigger picture

With back-to-back monthly expiries this week, Thursday being a market holiday, some traders had flagged potential volatility risk. Rajani's read is that the technical setup is strong enough to absorb that pressure, provided 23,800 holds as support.

The message for short-term traders: the trend is up, the leadership is clear, and the levels are defined. Use dips to 23,800 on Nifty as a buying opportunity.