The Indian stock market overall recorded losses last week, with Nifty overall ending in the red for the seventh consecutive week amid soaring bond yields and a sharp selloff in insurance and financial stocks after IRDAI’s reform proposals. Analysts now highlight that the market’s direction during the upcoming week will be determined by oil prices, bond yield trajectory and other key factors.
Sensex and Nifty sharply crashed on Thursday, tumbling nearly 2% each and wiping off a significant portion of investors’ wealth. The market then recovered some losses on Friday, but volatile crude and bond yields at elevated levels kept the market recovery capped.
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The Indian stock market will remain closed on October 2 (Friday) on account of Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti. Here are the 5 key factors that will likely determine market movement during the upcoming holiday-shortened week between September 28 (Monday) and October 1 (Thursday).
US President Donald Trump has rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Trump forcefully stated, "I reject this agreement. They want an agreement to be made under which the Strait of Hormuz is immediately opened, because they are severely failing."
Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran will remain resolute and not retreat in the face of the United States and Israel. "We stand firm with strength, we are at the service of our people, we will stand until our last breath, and we promise that as long as we have life in our bodies, we will be honest servants to the people; you have put us to shame, I do not consider myself worthy of your presence, I am your servant," he said.
With the Iranians holding firm in the face of Trump's threat of annihilation and his rejection of the peace deal will likely spook investors who will keenly watch developments in the oil-rich Middle East.
Oil prices fell around 2% on Friday but remained above $104 per barrel, keeping investors on the edge. Brent crude futures closed above $104 per barrel while those of WTI Crude futures were above $92 per barrel. With Trump’s rejection of peace efforts, investors will now eye oil price trajectory which have been rattling global markets since the Middle East conflict ensued earlier this year.
JPMorgan said it had lost visibility on the direction of oil prices and, for the first time since the Iran war began in February, no longer had a clear baseline scenario for the market. The bank said escalating tensions were adding to concerns over an already worsening supply shock.
"We simply don't know how to model the endgame," JPMorgan analysts said, pointing to the uncertainty over how the conflict could evolve. When the conflict began, the bank had assumed there were economic thresholds that the US administration would not cross. Six months into the war, JPMorgan said, many of those thresholds have been crossed, while there remains no clear exit strategy.
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Global bond yields trajectory and incoming US economic data will be another major focus as investors assess the Federal Reserve's policy path and its implications for emerging-market flows. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes closed last week above the 5.1% mark.
"Stronger-than-expected readings could keep Treasury yields and the dollar elevated, tightening financial conditions for emerging markets and potentially weighing on the rupee, foreign portfolio flows and Indian equity valuations," said Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth. "Conversely, softer data could ease rate concerns, lower bond yields and create room for a relief rally across risk assets," he added.
The trend of FPI flows turning negative after positive inflows in July and August was evident early this month, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. He noted that this trend has sustained and the total equity outflows through exchanges have touched Rs 25,682 crore this month up to 25th August.
Also the trend of FPI investment through the primary market continues with total investment of Rs 8,551 crore up to 25th of this month. This trend of selling through the exchanges and investing through the primary market has taken the total FPI selling this year through exchanges to Rs 2,95,971 crore and the total investment through the primary market during this period to Rs 54,398 crore, the analyst said.
Rupee traded volatile this week, moving within the 95.57–95.97 range and ending largely flat near 95.85, said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst of Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities. He noted that volatility in crude and gold, along with a rise in the dollar, limited the rupee’s ability to sustain gains.
"Going ahead, currency movement is likely to remain range-bound amid global commodity and dollar volatility. Rupee range can be seen between 95.50–96.50," the analyst said.
What lies ahead for Dalal Street?
Volatile crude and bond yields at elevated levels kept the market recovery capped, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments. He noted that concerns over inflation, foreign fund outflows and pressure on EM currencies remained intact. Selective bargain hunting after the recent pullback helped the market retain a positive bias, though gains remained confined to a narrow trading range.
The ability of benchmark indices to sustain above the psychologically important 23,000 level reflects domestic resilience and support from strong domestic liquidity, Nair said. "While elevated oil prices and global yields may continue to temper risk appetite in the near term, improving valuations and resilient domestic growth prospects are encouraging selective accumulation, helping the market absorb external pressures more effectively," he added.
Nifty closed higher on Friday, recovering modestly after the sharp decline in the previous session, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. Technically, the index continues to form lower highs and lower lows and remains below its key moving averages, keeping the short-term structure weak, he noted, adding that the RSI has turned bearish on the weekly chart, indicating continued downside momentum.
"On the downside, 23,000 remains the immediate support, followed by 22,700. On the higher end, 23,200–23,300 is the immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above 23,300 could improve the technical setup, while a decisive break below 23,000 may resume the downtrend," the analyst said.
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Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.
