Prediction markets are seeing a surge in trading activity around Anthropic's planned initial public offering (IPO), as retail investors place bets on the artificial intelligence company's potential valuation, listing timeline and other details ahead of its expected stock market debut next month, according to a report by Reuters.
The growing activity highlights how prediction markets are changing the way individual investors speculate on high-profile IPOs, allowing them to wager on outcomes such as a company's closing price and listing venue without having to purchase its shares.
Earlier this week, Anthropic took a significant step towards going public by unveiling its IPO filing. The listing could value the AI company, which develops the Claude family of models, at between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, according to the report.
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On Polymarket, more than a dozen markets have emerged around the anticipated offering, with traders betting on everything from the amount Anthropic could raise to its listing exchange and debut valuation. Rival platform Kalshi is also attracting wagers on potential lead underwriters and the sector index providers could assign to the company, the report stated.
Combined, these markets have generated tens of millions of dollars in trading volume, underscoring the growing appetite for speculative trading linked to major corporate events.
Michael Ashley Schulman, a partner at wealth management and financial advisory firm Cerity Partners, said the strong interest reflected the excitement surrounding Anthropic's potential listing. He added that prediction market activity could help investors assess expectations for the company's eventual public market debut, as per the report.
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Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts linked to the outcomes of real-world events, with prices fluctuating as participants assess the likelihood of different scenarios. Although these platforms were once largely focused on politics and economic data, they have increasingly expanded into financial markets.
As Reuters reported last month, prediction market operators are adding thousands of contracts tied to stock movements, corporate performance and other business developments that can influence financial markets.
Retail Investors Eye Anthropic's Market Debut
The expansion comes as access to IPO investments remains heavily skewed toward institutional investors with substantial capital and established relationships with underwriters. While retail participation has grown in recent years, including around high-profile offerings such as Elon Musk's SpaceX listing, individual investors typically receive only a limited share of IPO allocations, Reuters reported.
Anthropic's anticipated debut could provide an important test of investor demand for AI companies amid intense interest in the sector and growing scrutiny of valuations.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said the offering would be a crucial test of both individual and institutional investors' appetite for artificial intelligence investments.
As of 9:30 a.m. ET (1330 GMT) on October 28, the Polymarket contract tracking the timing of Anthropic's IPO had recorded $6 million in trading volume. A separate market focused on the company's closing market capitalisation had attracted approximately $3 million, Reuters reported.
Sosnick said prediction markets were increasingly becoming part of investors' approaches to financial risk management and speculation, reflecting their expanding role in the broader investment landscape.
However, while trading volumes and contract prices offer a snapshot of market expectations, they do not guarantee how an IPO will ultimately be priced or perform once shares begin trading. Anthropic's eventual valuation and market debut will depend on investor demand, offering details and broader market conditions, according to the report.
(Disclaimer: This article is based on inputs from agencies. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
