Indian government bonds are likely to start the week with some gains, after the central bank announced a cash withdrawal operation with an option for early redemption, while elevated oil prices and Treasury yields cap the rise.
The yield on the benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond is expected to trade between 6.94% and 6.99%, a trader at a private bank said, after closing at 6.9625% in the previous session.
"While the central bank's latest action is expected to boost some buying momentum, global factors will lower the excitement, limiting the scope of any larger rally," the trader said.
The Reserve Bank of India will conduct a 30-day variable rate reverse repo worth 7 trillion rupees ($74.09 billion), with an early redemption option aimed at encouraging banks to park funds while retaining the option to withdraw them if needed.
The move comes as the banking system's liquidity surplus swelled above a record 10 trillion rupees, pushing up demand for shorter-duration debt after larger-than-anticipated inflows under RBI's special schemes.
Meanwhile, oil prices were elevated, with the benchmark Brent crude contract staying above the crucial $96 per barrel mark, as tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran on vessels sailing in the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns of a prolonged supply disruption from the Middle East.
Brent crude rose 7.8% last week as the warring nations resumed attacks and caused a reduction in oil flows
Elevated energy prices pressure large importers like India, and a sustained rise could worsen its inflation trajectory and impact government finances.
The 10-year U.S. bond yield was around 4.78% in Asian trading, as the market increased wagers on the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike by the Federal Reserve next week after strong jobs data.
RATES
India's overnight indexed swaps may rise, tracking oil and U.S. yields.
On Friday, the one-year rate ended at 5.9875%, while the two-year closed at 6.18%. The five-year rate settled higher at 6.4650%.
