Mumbai: The Indian rupee on Monday slid below the psychologically significant 95 per dollar mark, weighed down by higher oil prices. The rupee closed at 95.18, versus its previous close of 94.94, with importer dollar demand persisting despite higher hedging costs, traders said.
The rupee traded in a wide range of 94.90 and 95.26 throughout the day, gaining in the first half, and eventually retracing back to levels south of 95 per dollar as importer dollar demand picked up.
This is the weakest rupee level in nearly two weeks, since the central bank announced its 'midnight measures' to cap excess depreciation. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), on October 10, unveiled fresh measures to shore up the rupee, diverting dollar purchases by state oil retailers away from the spot market and tightening hedging rules.
"Oil demand has shifted from the spot market, so the dollar demand seen today was likely from importers. Importers are still buying dollars despite hedging being more expensive and the RBI too has not been actively intervening by dollar sales, as it used to some time ago," said Dilip Parmar, currency research analyst, HDFC Securities.
Brent futures were trading around $115 per barrel on Monday, according to Reuters. Oil prices remain a key factor in the rupee's trajectory, with many now considering high energy prices as a base case. "FPIs and oil are the two factors that are majorly affecting the rupee. The broad range is between 94 and 97, and I expect more measures as soon as the rupee starts inching weaker than 96.50 levels," said Anindya Banerjee, head of currency research, Kotak Securities.
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Over the past week, the key support for the currency came in from the inflows of the Jio Platforms IPO. With that inflow now dried up, the rupee is again vulnerable, with no positives for the currency.
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"The fading support from foreign inflows linked to the Jio Platforms IPO have weighed on the currency. The RBI's reduced dollar-selling intervention has left the rupee more exposed to market demand and the currency is likely to remain under pressure while crude prices stay elevated and importer dollar demand persists," said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. The rupee is expected to trade in the 95-95.50 range on Tuesday, with importer demand and dollar purchases by PSU banks to meet oil companies' requirements likely to weigh on the currency.
